Authors
Dr. Dinesh Yadav
University of Lucknow, India
Ayushi Dwivedi
University of Lucknow, India
Abstract
This paper examines India’s export performance in the evolving India–U.S. trade relationship in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on the renewed use of tariffs and protectionist measures during the Donald J. Trump administration beginning in 2025. The post-pandemic period has been marked by supply-chain disruptions, heightened uncertainty, and renewed trade frictions, raising important questions about how emerging economies such as India have adjusted to changing external conditions. Against this backdrop, the study assesses the effects of U.S. tariff actions on Indian exports and evaluates India’s trade responses. The analysis draws on a multi-country, multi-sector panel dataset covering the post-COVID period. Fixed-effects and random-effects models are employed to estimate sector-level export responses to U.S. tariffs, controlling for key macroeconomic conditions and global trade dynamics. Robustness checks are used to confirm the consistency of the results.
Keywords
India–U.S. Trade Tariff Escalation Post-COVID Trade Export Performance Panel Data Analysis Trade Diversification
How to Cite This Article
APA Citation
Yadav, D., & Dwivedi, A. (2026). India's Trade Opportunities amid U.S. Tariff Escalation in the Post-COVID Era: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Management Intellectuals, 2(1), 36–49.
Conclusion
The post-COVID escalation of U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration posed clear constraints on India’s export performance, with labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel, leather, and gems and jewellery facing the strongest adverse effects. The panel data evidence confirms a significant contraction in exports following tariff increases, while also revealing marked sectoral differences in vulnerability to trade shocks.
India’s policy response has been critical in moderating these impacts. Efforts to diversify export markets, deepen bilateral trade engagement, and strengthen domestic industrial capacity helped cushion short-term disruptions and support longer-term adjustment. Measures such as the expansion of production-linked incentive schemes, improvements in trade infrastructure, and targeted export promotion enhanced competitiveness, particularly in high value manufacturing and services.
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